US presidential election; Peace will come, or conflict will increase

In such a context, the presidential election is being held in the United States today (November 5), which is believed to be able to reduce the conflict and play an effective role in establishing peace in the world. The two main rivals in this election are Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party. Kamala Uder, the second female presidential candidate in US election history, has emerged as a liberal, democrat and tolerant. On the other hand, Trump has been perceived as more aggressive than his first term. As a result, the question of whether the world will come to peace over individual victories or defeats or whether the conflict will increase - has become a big question for the analysts.

International diplomatic analysts are already divided on the possible outcome of the election of the world's largest economy and largest military power. One part sees the possibility of peace, the other part fears the escalation of conflict. If Trump wins, the global impact on NATO, China, the Middle East, and even oil and gas imports will be somewhat negative. Again, many do not see the possibility of reducing the instability of the Middle East as a result of Kamala's victory. Still, if Kamala wins, he sees an opportunity for some compromise with the Western world. International analysts are divided on the global implications of the two candidates' wins and losses. Econom

ics, ongoing conflicts and international politics are closely related to each issue. The future of the world also depends on who comes to power.

On the one hand, Donald Trump plans to withdraw from global governance to improve the domestic economic system, while the Democrats have campaigned on a larger agenda of improving global relations. In the race for the White House, Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris have been telling voters for a long time to choose the representative who is qualified to establish peace. Voters are also tired of the long-term campaign and various fears and concerns. Controlling inflation and improving living standards have always been more important to US citizens than democracy.

Bad luck for NATO, with Ukraine

NATO, the alliance of the world's most powerful military powers, is paying close attention to this election. Because Kamala Harris has already assured that if he wins, cooperation with NATO will increase. Kamala also has to deal with Russia's cold relationship with the Biden administration. Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that their conflict with the United States may increase. There is no doubt that he has warned the Biden administration. But in Trump's case, the calculation is an exception. Trump has already taken several decisions to cut additional taxes on the country's economy. Among these decisions is the reduction of foreign military aid. In addition, Trump's kind of friendly relationship with Putin has worried Ukraine. Trump, however, has said he will end the war in Ukraine before he is sworn in. In this regard, he had long ago discussed the end of additional military aid to Ukraine. Trump has even said he will cut funding to NATO if he comes to power. So, the fact that NATO will get some less US support could have an impact on the Russia-Ukraine war. But in view of Trump's relationship with Putin, many see an additional opportunity for Trump to initiate a ceasefire. But reducing U.S. intelligence-sharing cooperation with the NATO alliance is at least a concern for NATO.

The fluctuating fortunes of the Middle East

Regardless of who wins this election, the conflict in the Middle East is still in flux. In the Middle East, Israel is currently engaged in conflict on the Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen fronts. The recent regional war with Iran has also created tensions. Arab-American supporters have increased their support for Trump, especially after Biden's proposal to mediate a cease-fire in Gaza fell flat in the Middle East. The Biden administration recently failed to avoid vetoing a cease-fire resolution in Gaza. This pressure will also fall on Kamala. In the Middle East, the pressure on Kamala is high due to unsuccessful negotiations with Israel several times. Kamala, however, said she was not in favor of killing in Gaza. But don't budge from America's commitment to Israel's security. As a result of his statement, many people think that Kamal's administration will not be able to have a big impact in solving the Middle East crisis. However, Julien Barnes Dassey of the European Council on Foreign Relations said, "Kamala has come at a time when he can put pressure on Israel to get a cease-fire if he comes to power." But according to this analyst, the future of the Middle East will depend on how Kamla decides on the ceasefire. 

On the other hand, Trump has always been a big supporter of Israel. In his election campaign, he also said that Jews who vote Kamala can say goodbye to the state of Israel. Trump moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to West Jerusalem in 2018 while in office. His decision was very brave for that time. Because many European countries could not think like that. By taking the embassy to the occupied territories, it is understood that Trump will cooperate with Israel in the Middle East crisis. However, in the middle of the election campaign, Trump warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Peter Lintl, a Middle East expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said Trump had harshly criticized Netanyahu for losing the propaganda war a few days ago. This war is a golden opportunity for Trump to settle down. He supported Israel but could also put pressure on the aggressor Netanyahu to stop the war. However, Trump's statement regarding Iran does not avoid encouraging conflict.

Concerns for Immigrants

The United States has always been a primary destination for immigrants due to civil wars and economic instability in many parts of the world. Many from Sudan and the Middle East try to settle in the United States. But Trump's anti-immigration views have been a source of anxiety for many aspiring immigrants. Under the Biden administration, students from many countries came to the United States for higher education. Instead of taxing them more, Biden gave them special financing and lending privileges. If Kamala Harris comes to power, he will try to coordinate this matter a little more. Kamla will also modernize the issue of construction of immigration shelters along with the tightening of the law at the border. Such is the importance of the global migration problem. But Trump will probably remove this benefit. Besides, one may lose the opportunity to settle his entire family after getting citizenship. After Trump announced the mass deportation of many immigrants already inside the country, problems have also arisen for immigrants. Europe is also worried that their pressure may fall on other Western countries. Especially his Project 2025 roadmap for mass expulsion of immigrants already inside the country. It is even more impossible to stay out there. The United States has some influence in the global economic supply chain. Trump has announced a 20 percent tariff on US imports to curb inflation. Apart from this, he is also worried about the US market for Chinese products. In this regard, he announced long ago to impose 60-200 percent tariff on Chinese products. If this happens, then China may enter into a trade war with the United States. And the negative impact of this trade war will be massive in the inflation of the whole world. In particular, due to the increase in the exchange rate of the dollar, inflation can be large for many countries, said David Fraser, an economic researcher. Trump's tariffs will also have a major impact on Europe's automobile sector. In the case of Kamala’s, however, that fear is less. Although the Biden administration recently drafted a set of tariffs, the threat of a trade war under Trump is unlikely to be in the Kamala regime.